Flashback Fridays: Negreanu, Best Hero Call of His Career?

Was this the Best Hero Call of Daniel Negreanu’s Career?

Daniel Negreanu has recently hit the headlines for all the right reasons. Congratulations to him for taking down the $10,000 + 100 No Limit Hold’em – PGT Last Chance #1 on January 2nd 2024. What a way to kick off the new year in style. This week in flashback Friday’s we are diving deep into the Poker Archives and taking a look at a hand from the 2006 $15,000 + 400 WPT Doyle Brunson North American Poker Classic. Some deem it to be Negreanu’s greatest hero call ever. It is of course quite the statement, let’s look over the hand in some detail and let you guys be the judge.

Before we begin with the action, it’s worth pointing out that unfortunately like is the case with most older Streamed poker, the graphics are not displaying the stack sizes or blind amounts. Without the exact stack sizes etc it is hard to precisely review the hand, but nonetheless let’s crack on.

There were six players remaining before the hand with the payouts as follows:

• 1st $2,207,575
• 2nd $1,099,430
• 3rd $592,000
• 4th $389,630
• 5th $253,715
• 6th $169,145

A Brazen Bluff from Jordan

The action began with Edward Jordan raising it up to 200,000 with 87, this was met by a 3-bet of 625,000 from Mads Andersen who had been dealt pocket Nines 99. Next to act was Negreanu on the button who made the call with big slick AK. Jim Hanna last to act had also picked up Ace-King AK. After some consideration, taking onboard the action that preceded Hanna made a controlled lay down. Jordan put in a further 425,000, off to the flop they went three handed. The pot stood at 2,025,000.

The flop came down QQ10 Giving D Negs a gutshot to go with his two over cards. All three players checked it around.

The turn put another heart on the board when the 4 was turned over. This time first to act the play was anything but passive from Jordan. He made a very Brazen bluff, jamming all in for 1,045,000. If called he would most likely be drawing dead.

What a Spot for Andersen

Andersen was in a very awkward spot, even if he believed there was a chance Edward was semi-bluffing drawing to the heart flush draw, he still had to factor Daniel in, who was last to act. For that reason he folded it a little quicker then he perhaps normally would.

With the action now on Daniel let’s look at the hand in some depth. A player jamming this turn first to act can be one of several scenarios. The most likely would be a player who has trip queens and is scared of being outdrawn so they want to protect their hand. Another possible scenario here would be a player who has a Ten and deems it to be good given the action thus far. A jam on the Turn would also be very likely from a player who was semi bluffing drawing to the flush.

Other possibilities include a player who has slow played Jacks+ (very unlikely at this stage of a Tournament) or a player who is stone cold bluffing, this is again very unlikely, although on this occasion that rang true.

Let’s have a look closer at the Possible Scenario’s

Without knowing Negreanu’s stack size it is hard to determine just how good of a call it maybe, the more chips he has the easier the call. It is worth noting that when he made the call he stated “it is just one million”. That could have been reference to the price he was getting, which was 3-1 on his money. In other words for the call to be profitable long term he would need to have a greater then 33% chance to win the hand.

Let’s refresh ourselves with the possible scenario’s. If Edward had trip queens with an Ace Daniel would have 25% Equity. not bad for what is logically the worst possible hand to be up against. If Edward had Ace Queen with the Ace of hearts Daniel would have around 7% but, would his opponent really jam having that much strength? unlikely.

If up against King Queen with his opponent having no hearts, Negreanu would have slightly more equity standing at 27%. So what if his opponent had a hand like Jack-Ten with and without a heart? Daniel would have around 36%.

Now let’s take a look at the unlikely big pocket pairs. If Edward had Jack’s D Neg’s would have 29%. Against King’s his equity goes up slightly to 32% with a higher chance to hit broadway. And against Aces he would be 25%.

Let’s have a look at one last scenario. It is possible his opponent can play the hand in this manner with a hand like King-Jack with the Jack of hearts. This would warrant Daniel a huge 88% Favorite to win the hand.

Best Hero Call of His Career or Priced in?

After looking at all the information available we can see it is a marginal spot. The biggest question is did Negreanu get a live read that factored into hid decision making? Regardless of the exact reason, we can say it was a good call from Negreanu, was it his best call ever? we will let you decide for yourselves.

Check out the video below, and let us know what you think.

Odd’s from Card Player’s NLHE Odds Calculator.